Assessment of the thermal stability of permafrost landscapes in response to contemporary climate warming: A case study of Central Yakutia

Assessing the resilience of landscapes in response to current climate warming represents a critical challenge today. The current intensification of cryogenic processes in Central Yakutia, particularly in disturbed and anthropogenic landscapes, highlights the urgency of this issue. This study aims to evaluate the thermal stability of permafrost landscapes in Central Yakutia amid increasing climate warming since the 1970s. The assessment is based on field observations of permafrost rock temperatures within the annual heat turnover layer from 1981 to 2023, alongside meteorological data on air temperature at 2 meters above ground and soil temperature at a depth of 1.6 meters. The primary research method involved monitoring, including establishing a network, observation at sites and monitoring stations of the Melnikov Permafrost Institute of SB RAS, and analyzing the collected data in the context of climate change. Spatiotemporal changes in the thickness of the active layer and the mean annual temperature of ground within the annual heat turnover layer were estimated, with their trends serving as indicators of the landscape’s response to climate warming. A regional analysis of the variability of the thermal stability coefficient (Кα) of permafrost rocks across nine types of localities was conducted, based on temperature data at the base of the active layer and within the annual heat turnover layer (10 meters depth). Positive Кα values exceeding 1.0 indicate permafrost degradation, while negative trends are associated with changes in snow accumulation regimes and ecosystem biomass. Assessing the thermal stability of permafrost landscapes has significant implications for the natural environment and the socio-economic stability in Central Yakutia. The research findings can inform government agencies in territorial development planning and support environmental organizations, businesses, and educational institutions.

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